Electronic – run a program, on an ATtiny85 with micronucleus bootloader, without usb connected

You can definitely transmit data using just TX & GND.

Firstly, you want to hook up the ATtiny85 TX line to the FTDI RX line (yellow on the TTL-232R). Make sure that the USB adapter can handle 5V - I'm fairly sure even the 3.3V TTL-232R is 5V tolerant.

According to the example page for SoftwareSerial, you need to set the direction of the TX & RX lines in your setup function:

// include the SoftwareSerial library so you can use its functions:
#include <SoftwareSerial.h>

#define rxPin 2
#define txPin 3
#define ledPin 13

// set up a new serial port
SoftwareSerial mySerial =  SoftwareSerial(rxPin, txPin);
byte pinState = 0;

void setup()  {
  // define pin modes for tx, rx, led pins:
  pinMode(rxPin, INPUT);
  pinMode(txPin, OUTPUT);
  pinMode(ledPin, OUTPUT);
  // set the data rate for the SoftwareSerial port
  mySerial.begin(9600);
}

The baudrate will be 4800 in your case. The SoftwareSerial library doesn't seem to support CTS & RTS, so just make sure you aren't using them on the host software.

Check out the reference page for more details, where they talk about some potential timing issues which may be exacerbated if you're running at 1MHz using the internal oscillator on the tiny.

I found a workaround in an Arduino forum thread

Create an Arduino.h in ...\Arduino\hardware\attiny45_85\cores\attiny45_85 containing

#include <WProgram.h>

I still get warning messages

avrdude: please define PAGEL and BS2 signals in the configuration file for part ATtiny85
avrdude: please define PAGEL and BS2 signals in the configuration file for part ATtiny85

but my tiny multi-million-transistor CPU can now wonderously make a LED blink.

^{somewhere, an AVR engineer is crying into his beer}

It seems that the ATtiny45_85 setup for the Arduino IDE was affected by some sort of reorganisation in the internals when Arduino IDE 1.0 was developed.