Scrum Project Planning – Does a Time Estimate Equal a Promise?

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If an estimate is not a promise then as a product owner how can I deliver my projects without knowing how long it will take?

Does a Scrum team work more efficiently if we treat time estimates as a promise?

How much research (preparation, effort to understand the problem) in a story is enough to come up the right estimate?

What about unexpected technical problems (problems that can really mess your initial estimates) that come up after you estimate your work?

Best Answer

Estimations are not promises etched in stone. They are the best guess the team can make about the effort required to complete the task / story.

In answer to your question "as a Product owner how can I deliver my projects with out time as a reference?", the answer is that you can and should have time as a reference (i.e. you will release on a certain date). What you do not have is the exact scope that will be in the delivery.

Note that what I said is true of each and every methodology you use for driving your development. The difference between Scrum and other methodologies (such as Waterfall), is that in Scrum this fact is acknowledged, and accounted for. What you will do, as a PO, is to prioritize your scope, and make sure that the team, at any given moment is:

  1. Working on the most important (read: valuable) undelivered feature (task, requirement, user story)
  2. Has successfully completed every feature that is more important than the one they are currently working on (this refers to the Definition of Done: Every completed story is tested, accepted, bug free, and feature-complete).

Having that, you can now ship, or deliver, at the drop of a hat, knowing that at any given moment, the latest build is the best product that could be shipped. This means that at the date of your original release commitment, you will deliver the best product possible.

Of course, this doesn't promise that it will consist of every story you requested of the team to develop, but you know that the remaining incomplete ones are of course the least important ones, that could easily be delivered at a later date.

Also, the estimates made by the team will be increasingly better, allowing you to have an early solid idea of what the scope will be at the end of the release. You will be able to ship a good solid product on time, with a few additional less-important features a few weeks later (you will of course be able to estimate when that will be).

As for the amount of research required - there's a law of diminishing returns in play here. If you break your stories small enough, then a little research should give you a close enough estimation. If you got them wrong, then you will amend in the next sprint and the estimates will be better. In 3-4 sprints, on average, you should have a good idea of how much scope can be delivered by the deadline (or how long it will take to complete the scope).