Sometimes, there are research and development projects where nothing is known in advance about the technology, concepts, and client. However, the manager still needs time estimates. What can I do to produce useful estimates?
How to estimate projects when I need to include a learning curve for new technology
estimation
Best Answer
Honestly, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes in his book The Black Swan: 'we just can't predict'. Mainly due to the unknown-unknowns. It is generally best to communicate this very fact, the fact that you can't predict, instead of communicating an estimate.
As Taleb writes: it is better to be broadly right, than precisely wrong. So be sure to communicate the fact that you have hard times estimating, and use things like 'learning curves in new tech' as one of the arguments. This means that the range of your estimate will be big: 'this project wil cost between 100k and 500k.'
By saying such a thing, the one asking you to estimate something realizes that things are not so simple.