My seat-of-the-pants understanding for load capacitors (corrections invited) goes like this:
When a crystal is cut for a certain load capacitance, it is measured with that capacitance across it during final factory trimming. There is nothing magical about the value. It is simply a way of saying, that if you design your circuit to present that same capacitance, then your crystal will be within the stated (.005% or whatever) tolerance.
So, you add up all the capacitance in your circuit, and then add in what's needed to bring it up to the spec. We'll use your numbers. The stray capacitance due to the traces on the board obviously will vary with the board, so let's guess 1.3 pf. A number I made up, to go with the capacitance of the microprocessor's oscillator, stated to be 1.7 pf. So, we've got 3 pf in parallel with the crystal. The crystal wants 18pf, so we have to make up the 15 pf difference with discrete parts.
Since the two load capacitors are in series (Gnd->cap->xtal->cap->Gnd), we double the cap value to 30pf. Two 30 pf caps in series give us the 15 pf we're looking for.
Note 1. I tried searching for typical PCB stray capacitance. It was all over the map. Suffice it to say, that as the hardware gets smaller, the capacitance will keep getting smaller. A lot of typical values claimed less than 1 pf.
Note 2. If there is more capacitance than spec, the crystal will oscillate at a lower frequency than specified. If there's less, then it's higher. You can see, that if you want to trim the oscillator to spec, it's easier to shoot for a lower capacitance and add some later, than to try the opposite.
Note 3. For fun, look up "gimmick capacitor".
Note 4. My "seat of the pants" explanation is sufficient as an introduction, and this technique works in many cases, but not everywhere. For a more in-depth look at the EE principles behind those capacitors, see this answer.
Best Answer
Don't rely on parasitic capacitance. Put the two capacitors in there and you can adjust them later if you need to. You won't be able to probe the crystal directly because it's parasitic capacitance usually kills high Q resonators. You can however tell if the processor is running when configured for the external crystal oscillator.
Once you have the processor running drive an I/O line up and down to an LED (once a second or something) to watch for any failures in the oscillator. Hit it with some cold spray and see if it dies. Likewise heat it up to see if it dies. That will give you an idea of how tolerant your design is to temperature variations. If this is a one-off that you are just playing with then that's probably as far as you need to go with fault tolerance testing.